Tuesday 22 March 2011

Futures - Forecast, IP Oppotunity Statement, IP Justification

Forecast


I can assume, based on my research, that certain aspects from both Transport and The Sea will continue to receive solid media attention, and some aspects will be gaining more media coverage due to future releases and developments in technology.

Transport.




Flying Games.
Based on my research, I predict that one of the increasingly more popular aspects of transport as of recent is Aircraft Based Flying, specifically in Games:
There have been a fair number of flying games over the years, as I have shown in my Past and Present research ( [GameSpot. (2003). Lock On: Air Combat Simulation.] [GameSpot. (1998). F-22: Total Air War.] [Davenport, B. (2011)] [Game Spot. (2009). Tom Clancy's HAWX.] [GameSpot. (2008). Frontlines: Fuel of War.] ).  I have also shown in my Horizon Scanning research, that there are 3 Flying Games coming out in the same week of 2012. ( [Play. (2011). Combat Wings: The Greatest Battles Of World War II.] [Play. (2011). Birds of Steel.] [Play. (2011). Ace Combat: Assault Horizon - Legacy.] ).


I have a number of theories as to why there is a sudden increase in the number of flying games in production; the success of H.A.W.X 2 in late 2010, the increased popularity of RedBull Air Race, and the low number of flying based games released in the past 3 years, creating a gap in the market.




Car Racing.
Car Racing in general has proven to be consistently very popular, and Car Racing in Games has been very popular for over a century now, and the number of sales seems to continue to increase with sequels.  I have shown good evidence in both my past and present research that there is a popularity in Car Racing aswell as Car Racing Games. ( [GameSpot. (2002). World Rally Championship.] [Syed, S. (2010).] [Chaudhary. (2011).] and [Inside F1. (2011). Grand Prix.] - Onwards ).
I Have also shown in my Horizon Scanning research, that there are Car Racing game titles being released in the future. ( [Play. (2011). Off-Road Drive.] [Play. (2011). Ridge Racer: Unbounded - Limited Edition.] ).


There are countless racing games out there and most do very well, but as of recent, the racing games market seems to have split into sections, one of which is Realistic Racing.  One of the leading Realistic Car Racing franchises in Gran Turismo, but there are countless others, and new ones will rise.
I believe that Realistic Car Racing game are going to become more and more popular over time whilst our computer technology advances.  As the better our technology is, the more realistic and generally better the games will be.  Also, games are becoming more and more interactive and physical, and I predict that the more interactive Racing games become, the more popular they will become.


Unmanned Aerial Vehicles.
Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Technology has proven successful and useful in recent years.  The main appealing feature it has to our uses is that there is no pilot in the air with it, which means that the aircrafts can stay in flight for days or weeks at a time without needing to land (very good for surveillance).  They are very lightweight and fuel efficient, and there is also the fact that without a pilot on-board, there is minimal human risk.
Unmanned aerial vehicles are currently for military use mainly, but there is the potential for the technology to expand to other fields, such as; Cargo Transport, Goods Delivery, Police, Construction, Security, etc...


As I have shown in both Present and Horizon Scanning research, there is a significant amount of media coverage over new UAV technology ( [Pappalardo, J. (2010).] [DefenseIndustryDaily. (2005).] ), and there are already plans in place for UAV technology to enhance and become more significant in the military, which in-turn, will result in more media attention.
The most highly used and reliable UAV's used at this time are the Predator and the Reaper, both of which are used in the newly released Call of Duty: Modern Warefare 3.  This shows that UAV's work well in real battlefields, aswell as virtual ones.



The Sea.




Deep Sea Exploration.
Based around the research I have done, Deep Sea Diving and Exploration is going to be increasingly popular in the media in the future.
In recent years, there have been huge discoveries, milestones and developments to do with the deep sea.


In my Present research, I showed how much has been achieved and discovered in only the last few years.  From new and unimaginable species, to world record expeditions. ( [Dixon, B. (2011)] [Perun, B. (2011)] [Eilperin, J. (2011)] [John. (2007)] [Unknown. (2007). 10 Horrible Deep Sea Creatures.] [Brady, S. (2011)] [Broad, W. (2011)] ).  There have been many documentaries and news reports about new discoveries,  and they always receive positive reactions.
In my Horizon Scanning research, I looked into what the future plans were for Deep Sea Technology and Diving, and I found that AUV's and Scuba Diving are about to take a huge step forward with new technology advancements.
( [DeepSeaWater. (2011).] [DivingLore. (2010).] [PictureNewsletter. (Unknown).] ).
These future plans have already received a fair amount of media attention from press and scuba diving societies.  So when they are eventually perfected and put into production, there will be much more attention directed towards them, criticizing whether they are good for the future of their fields or not.

Now that we have the means to explore the depths of the sea, more and more research teams will go on expeditions; manned and unmanned.  Soon once technology advances further, we will be able to explore all 100% of the oceans beds.  New, exciting and interesting discoveries will be made, which will spark more interest.




Sharks.
Sharks in films have proven to be highly popular over the past few centuries.  There has been a constant stream of shark based films, with one being release every few years (at least).  Sharks attacks and incidents are also very heard of and popular in the news.  If there is a minor incident, it can still make headlines, as I have shown in my research. ( [JH. (2009).] [Viegas, J. (2011).] ).
There have been an increased amount of shark attacks in recent years, all of which are big news, and I believe this increase in incidents will cause more people to worry and talk about shark attacks.  And I believe that the increased media attention, aswell as the recent 3D shark films will cause more shark based Films, TV programs, Documentaries, and possibly even Games to be made.


My research shows that there has always been an appeal of shark films, starting with Jaws. ( [Kevin. (2006).] [IMDB. (1975).Jaws.] [Unknown. (1999).Deep Blue Sea.] [ LeVasseur, A. (2003)] [Michael. (2011)] [IMDB. (2011).Big Miracle.] [Riviello, A. (2011).] ).




Pirates.
Pirates have been consistently highly popular for all audiences in films and games.  Pirates of the Caribbean has set the bar very high for other serious pirate films, so I predict there will not be any for a fair few years, but a new Pirate orientated film will arise eventually.  I have shown evidence of a strong interest and popularity of pirate films. ( [Lexster, T. (2003)] [Unknown. (2003). Kraken (Pirates of the Caribbean).] [IMDB. (2003). Peter Pan.] [IMDB. (2011). Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.] [Gallagher, B. (2011).] ).
After a little further research, I have found that there is a new pirate film planned.  It is called Pirate Latitudes, and is based around the 2009 Novel.  There is no information as of yet, apart from that it is an action-adventure story.
Pirate games on the other hand will continue to be released (RPG, MMORPG, Adventure, Strategy), and are only doing even better with the help of the Pirate of the Caribbean fan-base.
My research has shown a large amount of Pirate games in Past, Present and Horizon Scanning.  Some of the games coming out in the future are slightly different to previous titles, such as the Hack n Slash 'Captain Blood'.
( [GameSpot. (2000). Sea Dogs on PC.] [GameSpot. (2007). Sid Meier's Pirates!.] [GameSpot. (2008). Pirates of the Burning Sea.] [GameSpot. (2011). Pirates of Black Cove.] [VanOrd, K. (2011).] [TheHut. (2011). Captain Morgane and the Golden Turtle PS3.] [GameSpot. (2011). Curse of the Skeletons' Island.] [GameSpot. (2011). Captain Blood.] ).


I predict that Pirate Games, Films and other medias are going to continue to be highly popular, and may possibly become even more popular, with the new games coming out.




IP Opportunity




IP Statement.


My IP Opportunity is the theme of 'Pirates' combined with 'Flying/Flight'.




IP Justification.


I feel that choosing Pirates and Flying/Flight for my IP is a safe and good choice as there is a strong following and popularity in both, and it looks as though they are going to become more popular in the near future.  There is also the potential that they could work well together.
Both of my IP choices have the potential to appeal to all audiences and ages, and can be used in many genres.




Pirates.
There have been over 100 pirate films created since film was first invented, and there have been countless pirate games in the last 15 years.  I have shown more recent and more popular titles in my research:






Past:
"
Lexster, T. (2003)
Another good example are the Pirates of the Carribbean films.
These films are hugely popular, and it is one the first times that you see Pirates as the protagonists.
Unknown. (2003). Kraken (Pirates of the Caribbean).
In one of the films, there is a sea creature known as the Kraken, which is a well known mythical creature.  It is a huge squid like creature that takes down entire ships.
Having this monstrous creature in the film, helps give across the impression that the sea is a scary and unknown place, in the same way that the shark films do.
I always like it when films include mythical and unknown creatures like the Kraken.

IMDB. (2003). Peter Pan.
"The Darling family children receive a visit from Peter Pan, who takes them to Never Never Land where an ongoing war with the evil Pirate Captain Hook is taking place." - IMDB. (2003). Peter Pan.
This epic film is hugely popular, even today.  It is a great kids story, but can be enjoyed by the whole family.

Other great Pirate films from the past are:
Muppet Treasure Island,
Treasure Planet,
Captain Sabretooth,
Pirates.













GameSpot. (2000). Sea Dogs on PC.
Sea Dogs.
This Pirate based game set in the 17th is a role-playing game with a strategic side.  It was release in 2000 and received great reviews and sold very well.  It is visually nice, especially for a game from 2000.
This game looks great and sold very well in its first weeks.  It did so well that it paved the way for similar Pirate games, which were released over the following years.
GameSpot. (2000). Sea Dogs on PC.
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Present:

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IMDB. (2011). Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.
"Jack Sparrow and Barbossa embark on a quest to find the elusive fountain of youth, only to discover that Blackbeard and his daughter are after it too." - IMDB. (2011). Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.
This 4th installment of the Pirates of the Caribbean series came out this year (2011), and was yet another huge success.  It was just as funny and fun as the past 3, and the story kept my interested the whole time.  This episode of the franchise brought in more profit than any of the other 3 films; $1,043,871,802.
IMDB. (2011). Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.






GameSpot. (2007). Sid Meier's Pirates!.
Sid Meier's Pirates!
This game was released in 2007 and received high ratings on all consoles, except the Wii.  It did well and was an addicting game.
You played as a Pirate Captain of the Caribbean; you leveled up and gained new skills and increased your crew and ship size.  You could ransack Ports and find hidden ancient treasures.
I like the sound of this game and can see why it did so well.  It is hard for a Pirate game to well without the backing of a film previous to it.

GameSpot. (2008). Pirates of the Burning Sea.
Pirates of the Burning Sea.
This game is quite different to other Pirate games as it is a MMORPG (massive multiplayer online role playing game).  It is again set in the caribbean, and you level up your character and gain skills and talents.  You can face-off with other players, or team up to fight larger and stronger foes.
It received great ratings all around, but never got the attention it deserved.  It did well, but could have done amazing if it was more known about.
I really like MMORPG's, and I would have loved to play this game back when it was more popular when released in 2008.  Lots of players still play this game, but it doesn't have enough frequently players to reach its true potential.

GameSpot. (2011). Pirates of Black Cove.
Pirates of Black Cove.
This PC game came out this year.  It is an action/strategy game where you play as a crew of pirates trying to become the best and most feared.  It received rather bad reviews and had many updates within the first week of release due to errors and glitches.
I like the look of this game, the style is nice and the environments seem to be vast and well created, but from reading many reviews, it seems this game has potential to be great, but was just made badly and there are too many problems for it to be fun.  But even due to its horrible reviews (3.5/10), the game still sold well in its first 2 weeks of release which I believe to be because of the consistent Pirate fan-base.
VanOrd, K. (2011).

There are many other Pirate games about, some do well, some do not.  Most are similar to 'Sid Meier's Pirates!', and have a story to follow.
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Future:
"
Gallagher, B. (2011).
Pirates of the Caribbean 5.
This film is planned for a 2013 release and will be filmed during the summer of 2012.  There are plans for the 6th film also, which proves that there is a strong interest in this pirate story.
Gallagher, B. (2011).
There isn't much information about what the story-line may be about, but you can be sure that it is going to be fun, amusing and action-packed.

IMDB. (2011). The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists.
The Pirates! In an Adventure with Scientists.
To be released in March 2012, this film is aimed at a young audience, and is expected to be just as popular as previous animated films by sony.  It has big actors such as Hugh Grant and David Tennant doing voice acting.  It is a high budget film and with good advertising, I predict it will do very well.
Animated films seem to heading towards a more realistic look from the cartoon style.

TheHut. (2011). Captain Morgane and the Golden Turtle PS3 .
Captain Morgane and the Golden Turtle.
This game is a simple point and click game for the ps3, psp, 3ds, pc and Wii.
It has very nice artwork and the story line is meant to be very entertaining, but my opinion after reading information and watching the trailer, this game is aimed at a younger audience.  The protagonist is a woman pirate, and the trailer emthasizes that, which makes me think it is a game that is trying to target a female audience.
I honestly didn't imagine there to be any point and click games for consoles, and I am curious to find out how well it sells.

GameSpot. (2011). Curse of the Skeletons' Island.
Curse of the Skeletons' Island.
This game looks absolutely beautiful.  It isn't going to be release until 2013, but it is a very aesthetically appealing game, from the current screenshots.
The game is planned to be an action adventure game, where you play as a pirate captain roaming the caribbean and its islands for treasure.  It is planned to have an intense story line, aswell as allowing players to free roam the large island heavy world.
There are very high hopes for this game, based on the initial game summary and screenshots.   There are already many keen fans awaiting more sneak-peeks at how the game is coming along.  I can see the hype for this game growing quite significantly.

GameSpot. (2011). Captain Blood.
Captain Blood.
This hack n slash RPG Pirate game is planned for release at some point in 2012.  It is by the creators of Sea Dog's, which I mentioned in my past research.
From watching the trailers, you play Captain Blood, who is a big beefy hero character.  There are some damsel's in distress, and boss fights.  You fight at sea and on land.  It genuinely looks like a good game, and the trailer are getting alot of very good feedback from the community. 

"
This research shows that there has been a keen interest in pirate stories for over a century, and that interest is going to continue to grow.
The Pirates of the Caribbean franchise is probably the most popular pirate story around.  Each film that gets released does better than the previous.
PotC 1: 
$654,264,015






PotC 2: 
$1,016,179,725







PotC 3: 
$963,420,425







PotC 4: 
$1,043,871,802







Lexster, T. (2003)






IMDB. (2006). Dead Man's Chest.






IMDB. (2007). At World's End.






IMDB. (2011). Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides.

This proves that there is a growing interest.


There are 2 known pirate films being released in the next few years, one is the next PotC film, and one is a new story, based on a novel.
The PotC films usually have a budget of around $250,000,000, and Disney would not take such a huge budget risk if they weren't sure if Pirates would be still be popular in 2013.
The proof that there is going to be a new pirate film coming out, means that it isn't just the PotC franchise that is popular, it's pirates in general.


The pirate games market has been strong since the 90's, and new titles have been coming out constantly since.  I have showed some of the better and more popular pirate games in my research, and the evidence that there are multiple pirate games proves that there is a future for pirate games and that there is an eager audience.




Flying/Flight.
Since World War 1, aircrafts have expanded to other medias, such as model toys of the planes that were in the world wars, video games, films, news, sport, etc...
The feel that in the near future, Flying/Flight will be more dominant and popular in the media, specifically films and games.
I have shown in my research that there has been a developing interest in Flying/Flight, and the more that the technology advances, more new and interesting content can be released.
Past:


"




Vogel, J. (Unknown).
Top Gun.
This film, released in 1986, was about an elite US flying school for fighter pilot.  They compete to be the best in the class.  One of the students romances the teacher.  This film was a huge hit and was one of Tom Cruise's first big films.
Vogel, J. (Unknown).
Without the world wars, films like this one would never exist.
 I think the reason this film was so popular, was because it showed a different side to war.  There was a fair bit of humour and fun.

IMDB. (2004). Fahrenheit 9/11.
9/11 Films.
The the horrific September the 11th incident, there have been multiple films released which document the on-goings of that day.  All of the films were very popular, mainly because 9/11 affected over half the worlds lives.
Some of the films document what happened that day and how it could have been avoided, some tell the story through the victims eyes, and there is one that tells the story from the firefighters point of view.

All these films are good and recieved good ratings.  I have personally seen two of them, and want to see the one about the firefighters.  They are all sad films, but they all tell a story that is personal to all of us, which is why they are important and popular.

GameSpot. (1998). F-22: Total Air War.
Total Air War.
This Air combat flight game from 1998 was one of the first flight games made for fun and not education.  It wasn't overly good in any way, but it was one of the first of its kind and sold fairly well.
Because of its originality and realistic physics, it was very highly reviewed game, and people today look at it as one of the first stepping stones in flight games.
GameSpot. (1998). F-22: Total Air War.

GameSpot. (2003). Lock On: Air Combat Simulation.
Lock On.
This PC game from 2003 was a flying simulation game.  Although it states that it is a simulation game, it was bought by many gamers for fun.
The game received good reviews of around 7/10 and sold well, but it was definitely more of a fun game then a simulation game.
GameSpot. (2003). Lock On: Air Combat Simulation.

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Present:


"




Kris, S. (2011).
Transformers.
These epic films are one of my favorite sets of films ever, they are action packed and great to watch.
The films are based around the cartoons and comics from years ago.  The films follow Sam Witwicky as he befriends the Autobots (good transformers) whilst they fight against the evil Decepticons (bad transformers).  The story has progressed well over the 3 films, and I still enjoy them.
The reason I think this film links with Transport is because the transformers turn into car, trucks and aircrafts as their way of blending into life on our planet.

The first film (2007) made over $700,000,000 worldwide, which clearly indicated a sequal or two needed to be made.  The second film (2009) raked in over $830,000,000 and the third film (2011) has made over 1.1 Billion dollars since July.  The franchise has completely exploded and has potential to keep going.
Kris, S. (2011).

Burner, F. (2008).
In the GTA games, you also had the ability to fly in aircrafts.  They weren't used for offensive purposes, they just allowed the player to fly around the world, which for me, was one of the best parts of the game.

A game that has just recently been released; Battlefield 3, has many aircrafts and airbased combat in a key part of the game.
Battlefield 3 is a First Person Shooter with a strong campaign and addicting online multiplayer gamemodes.
The previous Battlefield games have had aircrafts and air combat in them too, but i felt the newest one would show the most up-to-date examples.
Travis. (2011)
Some of the aircrafts that the game features are the F/A 18 Super Hornet, A10 ThunderBolt, Sukhoi Su-35 and the Sukhoi Su-39. These aircrafts are all modern models and really shows off the technology of today.
Battlefield 3 is such a huge and popular game, and what seperates it from other FPS multiplayer games, is its larger maps, realism and vehicles. Having tanks, jeeps, and jets really makes it stand out from the crowd.
Davenport, B. (2011)
I know from experience that when playing this and the previous games online, you would always be waiting for the helicopter or jets to respawn after someone has previously used it; people were always fighting over who gets to use the aircrafts.

Game Spot. (2009). Tom Clancy's HAWX.
Tom Clancy's H.A.W.X
"A new air combat game set in the near future when a private military force attacks the U.S. using technologically advanced jet fighters." - Game Spot. (2009). Tom Clancy's HAWX.
This game, released in 2009, was another one of the Tom Clancy games, all of which seem to do fairly well.  This Air Combat based game did extremely well, well enough that is, for a H.A.W.X 2 to be made, which was recently released.
It looks like a very realistic looking and feeling game.  The game received a User Score of 8/10, which is very impressive.
Game Spot. (2009). Tom Clancy's HAWX.

GameSpot. (2008). Frontlines: Fuel of War.
Frontline: Fuel of War
This game isn't specifically about Air Combat or flight, like H.A.W.X, but helicopters and jets play a key role in the multiplayer side of the game.
It is an FPS game made by THQ.  The multiplayer was very impressive aswell as the single player side of the game.  The aircrafts in the multiplayer maps were loved so much that THQ introduced two new Air Vehicles in an update with new maps.
I personally loved this game, but felt it didn't receive the attention it deserved.  It got a 7.3/10 User Score, and had good reviews all over the board.
GameSpot. (2008). Frontlines: Fuel of War.
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Other recent games that have aviation and aircrafts as a key part of the game are:
SkyDrift
MySims SkyHeroes
Tom Clancy's H.A.W.X 2
Apache: Air Assault
Snoopy Flying Ace
Transformers: The Game
Air Conflicts: Secret Wars
Call Of Duty's


"


Horizon Scanning:
















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Play. (2011). Ace Combat: Assault Horizon - Legacy.
Ace Combat: Assault Horizon.
This air combat game is due for release tomorrow, 02/12/2011, and is a 3DS game.
The gameplay is solely air combat, which incorperates the 3D feature, and touch screen targeting.  It is set in modern day, and the aircrafts are real life replicas.
I think this game could do well.  Other solely air combat games for consoles haven't done overly well, but this game could do better as it is on the 3DS and the controls have been improved from the previous titles.
I think the game will be targeted at teenagers, more towards young teenagers.

Play. (2011). Combat Wings: The Greatest Battles Of World War II.
Combat Wings: The Greatest Battles of WWII.
 This air combat based game to be released on 27th Jan 2012 is for the Wii, and takes the player back to World War II, where they fight in all the famous battles and many others.  The flight controls are adapted specifically for the Wii which makes them more interactive and physical, which I see as the selling point for this game.
Based on previous titles that have been soley air combat, without the interactive controls of the Wii, this game wouldn't do well, but with them, I can see it doing very well.
The rating is 12+ which I see as appropriate, as controlling a plane will be slightly to complex for anyone younger than 12, and the violence is inappropriate.

Play. (2011). Birds of Steel.
Birds of Steel.
 Another air combat based game... I know right.. There hasn't been many games like this one over the years that consoles have been out, and the ones that have been released never do spectacually well, and now 3 new games get released within 1 week.
If that doesn't spell out an increased popularity then I do not know what popularity is.  Or maybe games companies are insane.
But to the point, due for release on 1st March 2012, this game takes the player back to WWII to fight in all the battles.  This game leans more towards a flight simulator than a game soley for fun.  It is still made for fun, but the flying difficulty is more realistic, and battles are harder.  There is also a multiplayer side to the game which interested me.  You get to battle all together or up against each other, either in teams, or all as lone wolves.
This games seems like it is aimed less at families and more towards young adults.  The rating is still TBC, but I predict it will be 12+ or possibly 15+ because of the more realistic violence.
As technology progesses, simulator games begin to look more and more realistic and gameplay and controls are improved, which makes this probably one of the best flight simulators avaliable for console.

IMDB. (2011). Red Tails.
Red Tails.
"A crew of african American pilots in the Tuskegee training program, having faced segregation while kept mostly on the ground during World War II, are called into duty under the guidance of Col. A.J. Bullard." - IMDB. (2011). Red Tails.
This film looks like it could be very interesting; the CGI effects are apparently phenominal, and the story definately has weight.
This is going to be an epic underdog film.
Underdog stories are always loved by the public, and if you throw action and suspence in with it, then you are bound to sell well.
It is rated as a PG13, and I see the target audience as everyone.  The action will interest everyone, especially younger viewers, and the good story will keep the older viewers watching.  It isn't overly action packed, so you can't call it a 'man-film' which will help get families to watch it together.
The difference between this a film from the past such as Top Gun, are the CGI effects.  They are going to be 10 times better and as long as the story is just as gripping as Tog Gun's, then this film has the potential to do just as well.


"


This research shows that there was a strong interest and popularity in Flying/Flight in the past, aswell as today.  There is also clear evidence of Flying/Flight titles in development, games and films.


The fact that there are 3 flying based games coming out during same week of 2012 proves that there is a keen interest for flying in games.  3 Games companies are predicting that their flying games are going to do well, and the chances of 3 separate companies all being incorrect are low.


The film Red Tails is a high budget film about a squad of African American pilots during World War II.  It is by Twentieth Century Fox, who are a huge company, and it isn't often that they put out a bad film.  They wouldn't go forward with such a high budget film if they didn't strongly believe that it would do well.  This, aswell as the huge success and popularity of past Flying/Flight films, such as Top Gun, proves that there is an audience for films about Flying/Flight.








The research I have done throughout this Blog, and specifically the research quoted above, shows that my chosen IP's have had a strong popularity, and will continue to be popular in many medias.
I am confident that my IP's will be successful in the near future.